There are 126 ways Aston Villa can get into the Champions League. Here's every single one of them.
Unai Emery might want to make sure Villa beat Manchester United on Sunday
Mathematics is a wonderful thing. There are five Premier League matches left involving teams in contention for Champions League places who aren’t Liverpool or Arsenal, and a whopping 243 possible outcomes.
Aston Villa have a bad enough goal difference for it to not be a factor, which at least makes it easier to calculate that 126 of those 243 outcomes lead to Villa finishing in the top five and returning to the Champions League for a second consecutive season.
With more than a little help from my friend and We Are Terriers colleague Steven Chicken, here are the 126 ways the Premier League season can finish in Villa’s favour.
Nobody needs to read them all one by one so let’s look at the useful summary through a Villa lens instead.
The matches that matter, on Sunday unless stated, are:
Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth (Tue)
Fulham v Manchester City
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Newcastle United v Everton
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
And here’s the deal from Villa’s perspective:
If Villa beat Manchester United…
78 of the 126 successful Champions League permutations include Villa winning at Old Trafford on Sunday.
If they do that, they will end the season on 69 points with a shonky goal difference, meaning they also require ANY of the following:
Manchester City pick up fewer than four points in their two games, i.e. lose at least one or draw both
Chelsea fail to beat Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United fail to beat Everton
If Villa draw with Manchester United…
There are 45 ways in which a draw on Sunday would still take Villa into the Champions League but not many of them vary in any way that’s relevant to Villa.
If it’s a draw at Old Trafford, Villa would finish in the top five in EITHER of these scenarios:
Newcastle United lose to Everton
Manchester City fail to get more than a single point from their remaining games
If Villa lose to Manchester United…
Only 3 outcomes that involve a Villa defeat on Sunday result in a Champions League place – fifth, obviously – and the chances are they’ll all be dead tomorrow night.
If Villa are beaten, they would finish fifth if BOTH of these criteria are met:
Manchester City lose both of their remaining matches
Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest
Once more unto the breach, dear friends. Once more!
Let’s ‘ave it.